Colorado Market Declining and Takes Another Big Hit in Q2 – 4th Consecutive Quarter with Negative Comps
For the fourth consecutive quarter, The Colorado Department of Revenues posted negative comps both QoQ and YoY. For the six months ending June 30th, sales have fallen 21% to $906M mostly driven by a precipitous drop in Medical Marijuana (-46% ) due to new...
REGULATORY A Federal de-criminalization bill introduced in the Senate; not likely to pass but sets in motion further discussions. The Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA), was introduced into the Senate last month ( drafted March 2021). We share the...
Northern Lights Acquisition Corp (NLIT) extended the closing of its business combination with Safe Harbor Financial to July 29th (but could go to August 31st ) as the company waits for regulatory approval. An extension is not uncommon (i.e. last year,...
KEY POINTS Northern Lights Acquisition Corp will de-SPAC into Safe Harbor Financial (SHF) for $185M pending shareholder approval on 6/24. Deal valued at 9.1x ’23 EV/EBITDA vs 9.7x peer group average Enterprise Value /IPO 0x vs Cannabis SPAC average of 3.0x Redemption...
KEY POINTS For the third consecutive quarter, The Colorado Department of Revenue posted neg comps for cannabis both YoY and QoQ. Q1:22 results -41% med / -13% rec YoY and -23% med / -11% rec QoQ. The deceleration in revenue growth is consistent with what we...
TAKEAWAY We reviewed and analyzed cannabis confiscations and related activities that were published by various state and federal agencies that enables us to determine a floor value for the illicit market. Its growth seemingly outpaced that of the legal market post...
KEY POINTS: While the nature, extent and timing of U.S. cannabis policy reform remains in limbo, a federal excise tax is inevitable and with that (if not before) the elimination of the 280E tax burden. The Democrats suggest a 25% excise tax (Cannabis Administration...
KEY POINTS: With 3 years of public disclosures, we are better able to analyze and assess the financial and operational performance of the U.S. Multistate Operators (MSOs). The added costs of prohibition (most notably 280E tax, which, in some cases can trigger...
KEY POINTS: The eventual passage of the MORE Act mitigates several operational risks for cannabis businesses that touch the plant. The uncertainty around the timing of federal reform measures keeps valuations vulnerable to the impact of 280E. Most of the Multi-State...
KEY POINTS Now on the cusp of federal reform (timing of which is unknown), the cannabis industry appears at an inflection point with the growth prospects and legitimacy we outlined in 2014 beginning to materialize. Our review of a grouping of publicly traded MSOs for...
KEY POINTS: With two full years of public company disclosures, we provide a detail analysis that suggests a minimum federal excise tax of 10% upon the end of federal prohibition. The MORE Act currently includes a 5% excise tax (with a gradual increase to 8% over three...
Our inaugural “GeenWave Report” (2014) indicates, “The overall growth in the U.S. legal marijuana industry is substantial and will be fueled by the implementation of additional legalized markets across the country as momentum continues in favor of changes to...
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The firm was founded in March, 2014 by Matt Karnes, noted as one of the first to bring a professional pedigree to the emerging and complex cannabis industry. His tenure includes: Sellside Equity Research (Bear Stearns (JPMorgan), SG Cowen (Cowen), First Union Securities (Wells Fargo), Buyside Equity Analyst (L/S Equity Hedge Fund), Big 4 Public Accounting (PwC, Deloitte), Fortune 50 (Texaco Inc, Chase Bank). This wide range of experience establishes the firm's unique positioning as a trusted source readily able to connect the dots, read between the lines and ask the difficult and sometimes probing questions.
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Matthew A. Karnes, CPA
Matthew (Matt) Karnes has over 25 years of diverse finance and accounting experience. Prior to founding GreenWave Advisors LLC, Matt worked in equity research focusing on the Radio Broadcasting and Cable Television industries for First Union Securities. Matt also covered Satellite Communication at SG Cowen and in addition, worked with the top ranked Consumer Internet analyst at Bear Stearns & Co – this team was consistently recognized by the Institutional Investor’s “All America Research Team”. As a sellside equity analyst, Matt authored and co-authored numerous emerging industry research reports including such names as Google, Sirius, XM Satellite Radio, DIRECTV and EchoStar Communications.