The GreenWave Buzz
our proprietary analysis and commentary on what’s relevant in the cannabis space
Q2 Earnings Season Commentary – 9/1/2022
Summary Generally speaking, the larger MSOs continue to execute, while its becoming more of a struggle for the smaller players to scale and generate cash flows needed to support current operations. Q2 revenues came in as expected – minimal sequential growth, but...
Colorado Market Declining and Takes Another Big Hit in Q2 – 4th Consecutive Quarter with Negative Comps
For the fourth consecutive quarter, The Colorado Department of Revenues posted negative comps both QoQ and YoY. For the six months ending June 30th, sales have fallen 21% to $906M mostly driven by a precipitous drop in Medical Marijuana (-46% ) due to new...
Recent Headlines, Commentary and Upcoming Catalysts
REGULATORY A Federal de-criminalization bill introduced in the Senate; not likely to pass but sets in motion further discussions. The Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA), was introduced into the Senate last month ( drafted March 2021). We share the...
Colorado’s Medical Marijuana Market Takes A Big Hit
KEY POINTS For the third consecutive quarter, The Colorado Department of Revenue posted neg comps for cannabis both YoY and QoQ. Q1:22 results -41% med / -13% rec YoY and -23% med / -11% rec QoQ. The deceleration in revenue growth is consistent with what we...
Weeding Out the Illicit Market
TAKEAWAY We reviewed and analyzed cannabis confiscations and related activities that were published by various state and federal agencies that enables us to determine a floor value for the illicit market. Its growth seemingly outpaced that of the legal market post...
Will a Federal Excise Tax Replace Lost 280E Revenues!
KEY POINTS: While the nature, extent and timing of U.S. cannabis policy reform remains in limbo, a federal excise tax is inevitable and with that (if not before) the elimination of the 280E tax burden. The Democrats suggest a 25% excise tax (Cannabis Administration...
CASH IS KING – WHICH MSOs ARE MOST EFFICIENT?
KEY POINTS: With 3 years of public disclosures, we are better able to analyze and assess the financial and operational performance of the U.S. Multistate Operators (MSOs). The added costs of prohibition (most notably 280E tax, which, in some cases can trigger...
“MORE” IS LESS BUT BEWARE OF THE SNAKE IN THE “GRASS”
KEY POINTS: The eventual passage of the MORE Act mitigates several operational risks for cannabis businesses that touch the plant. The uncertainty around the timing of federal reform measures keeps valuations vulnerable to the impact of 280E. Most of the Multi-State...
Q ”4:20” and YE 2020 REVIEW
KEY POINTS Now on the cusp of federal reform (timing of which is unknown), the cannabis industry appears at an inflection point with the growth prospects and legitimacy we outlined in 2014 beginning to materialize. Our review of a grouping of publicly traded MSOs for...
”MORE” TAX REQUIRED TO RID THE (IRS) SNAKE IN THE “GRASS”
KEY POINTS: With two full years of public company disclosures, we provide a detail analysis that suggests a minimum federal excise tax of 10% upon the end of federal prohibition. The MORE Act currently includes a 5% excise tax (with a gradual increase to 8% over three...
Regardless of a Blue Wave, Here Comes the Green Wave!
Our inaugural “GeenWave Report” (2014) indicates, “The overall growth in the U.S. legal marijuana industry is substantial and will be fueled by the implementation of additional legalized markets across the country as momentum continues in favor of changes to...
Colorado Cannabis Sales Remain Resilient in September as the Shift from “Consumer” to “Patient “Continues
The state of Colorado’s marijuana tax revenues for September implies total monthly sales of $223.9M (+2% MoM; 44% YoY) with medical marijuana revenues at $46.2M (+10% MoM; 58% YoY) and recreational use ~$177.2M (+1%MoM; 47%YoY). We estimate that the average cardholder...