KEY POINTS Now on the cusp of federal reform (timing of which is unknown), the cannabis industry appears at an inflection point with the growth prospects and legitimacy we outlined in 2014 beginning to materialize. Our review of a grouping of publicly traded MSOs for CY ’19 and ’20 with a market cap >$1B, determined revenue growth of these ‘majors’ …
Read MoreOur inaugural “GeenWave Report” (2014) indicates, “The overall growth in the U.S. legal marijuana industry is substantial and will be fueled by the implementation of additional legalized markets across the country as momentum continues in favor of changes to existing federal laws.” The results of this year’s election further substantiates this assertion. As expected, ballot measures legalizing the recreational …
Read MoreThe state of Colorado’s marijuana tax revenues for September implies total monthly sales of $223.9M (+2% MoM; 44% YoY) with medical marijuana revenues at $46.2M (+10% MoM; 58% YoY) and recreational use ~$177.2M (+1%MoM; 47%YoY). We estimate that the average cardholder spend in the month ticked up to ~$548 from ~$502 in Aug ($348 Sept’19). The number of cardholders at …
Read More
The state of Colorado released its marijuana tax revenues for August which implies total monthly sales of $228.9 (+11% MoM; 33% YoY) with medical marijuana revenues at $43.6M (+3% MoM; 41% YoY) and recreational use ~$185.3M (+13%MoM; 31%YoY). We estimate that the average cardholder spend in the month ticked up to ~$520 from ~$510 in July ($355 Aug’19). The …
Read More
The state of Colorado released its marijuana tax revenues for July which implies total monthly sales of $206.7M (+ 7% MoM; 20% YoY) with medical marijuana revenues at $42.4M (+4% MoM; 42% YoY) and recreational use ~$164.2M (+8% MoM; 16%YoY). We estimate that the average cardholder spend in the month ticked up to ~$510 from ~$490 in June ($338 July …
Read More
August 5, 2020 This week, the State of Colorado released its medical marijuana cardholder statistics for May and June. The average number of cardholders declined from ~86K in H1:19 to ~82K in H1:20 while the average patient $ spend/month increased to $400 from $313 with a notable uptick in April just as the COVID-19 pandemic began its assault on the …
Read More
The complexities of the U.S. cannabis industry have been exacerbated by the consequences of states operating within the confines of closed economies defined by their own interpretations of legitimacy under the shadow of existing federal laws. These variations of standards from one state to another carry inherent uncertainties for businesses and investors with respect to how the industry will operate …
Read More
Many cannabis businesses are struggling, though not all the blame resides in faulty management decisions. In this edition of “The GreenWave Buzz,” we highlight the added costs of federal prohibition and discuss other risk factors that may cause near term volatility for both public and private valuations, giving particular attention to the tax burden associated with Section 280E of the IRS code.
Read More
The continuing trend of individual state approvals of cannabis use along with the recent end of prohibition in Canada have sparked a heightened level of interest in the U.S. Cannabis industry among a larger and more sophisticated pool of investors. This interest has been further inspired by the U.S. Federal Government’s continued reluctance to aggressively interfere with individual state permissions despite early on threats by the Trump Administration’s Department of Justice led by the recently dismissed Attorney General Jeff Sessions. We continue to believe that the rescission of federal cannabis prohibitions is inevitable, the question is when. Given the confluence of reform measures at both the state and federal levels we are optimistic that a first step for meaningful change to federal policy could come as early as next year with the passage of The STATES Act (a bipartisan bill providing state protections under the Tenth Amendment).
Read More
Sign up for our insights and analysis of current industry topics and trends.